Perryman’s Economic Forecast: Dallas-Fort Worth Will Continue to Outperform US Economy

Dr. Ray Perryman released his latest forecast for Texas and the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex at the Dallas Regional Chamber’s quarterly membership meeting in November. Perryman announced that his five-year forecast for the state and region are little changed from last year with only the timing of growth affected by current events. Texas and all of its metros are impacted by the national and global economies. However, the effects are both attenuated and lagged.

Perryman shows real product gains bottoming for the nation this year (2008) at 1.7 percent. Texas performs two points ahead at 3.7 and the region will finish the year at 4 percent real growth. Next year, however, the US economy will recover to 2.4 percent growth while Texas and DFW slow to 3.6 percent each. By 2010, all levels of the economy return to full strength at 3.5 real GDP gains nationally and 4.3 percent for both Texas and this region.

Despite annual growth in real national product, the US posted flat employment growth in 2008 and will suffer small net losses next year. Texas and Dallas enjoyed 2008 job gains upwards of 2 percent and will remain just shy of that in the coming years. Economic drivers in this region include energy, especially gas production at Barnett Shale, information and services. Construction, which was very strong this year, will slow considerably.

Overall, Perryman addressed the very real struggles of the nation’s financial and economic systems, noting that the US is in a recession and will remain so in the near term. However, he sees a recession that is less steep than that projected by many and remains confident in the strength of this nation’s economic and political institutions.

For more information on the Chamber’s Economic Development program and other upcoming events, visit www.dallaschamber.org/ecodev.